30/01/2023
Police Oracle
The majority of people given an immediate prison sentence before the age of 24 had been convicted or cautioned for an offence before the age of 16.
Interesting new research published by the Office for National Statistics last week found that going to a lower-quality school, as rated by Ofsted, is one of the many factors linked with a higher likelihood of someone being imprisoned.
The study uses Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Department for Education (DfE) data that have been linked as part of the Data First project. The data share includes prisons, courts, the Police National Computer (PNC), the National Pupil Database (NPD), children looked after (CLA) and children in need (CIN). It includes demographic information as well as variables such as attainment, criminal offences, school exclusions and care experience. The Data First project provides researchers with unprecedented opportunities to analyse very large cohorts of people over time, with the potential both to confirm (or disprove) what we think we know about the factors linked with getting into trouble and, it is hoped, to reveal new links between both criminal and crime-free lifestyles.
Only 1.1% of the 515,226 state school pupils in England in the cohort analysed for this study went on to receive an immediate custodial sentence between the ages of 16 and 24. These are people sentenced to time in a prison, young offender institution, or another secure setting with immediate effect.
This was the case for a higher proportion of pupils in lower-rated schools (1.4%), compared with those who went to good or outstanding schools (0.9%). This does not include pupil referral units (PRUs).
However, Ofsted ratings alone do not show the full picture. Pupils may be more likely to be imprisoned based on differences in income background, gender, ethnicity, and the location of the school and deprivation in the surrounding local area.
People with Special Educational Needs or children who were in care during secondary school are also more likely to receive an immediate custodial sentence by the time they were 24 years old.
The majority of people given an immediate prison sentence before the age of 24 had been convicted or cautioned for an offence before the age of 16.
Around 38,200 young people had been cautioned by police or given a criminal sentence before they were 16 years old. Most of these sentences were not immediate custodial sentences. Less than 300 young people were sent to prison or a secure institution at this age (as readers will know, sentencing guidelines are different for children and young people).
By the age of 24 years however, 3,115 (or 8.2%) of these young offenders had been handed an immediate custodial sentence. That means just over half (54.8%) of the 5,687 people who had been imprisoned by the age of 24 years first interacted with the criminal justice system while still of school age. Nearly all (93%) of the young people who do end up in prison or another secure setting are men.
The research found that children who were in care or flagged by authorities as “in need” during their secondary school years, and pupils who were eligible for free school meals in primary school were all less likely than others to attend a “good” or “outstanding” secondary school.
Students with recorded behavioural, emotional and social difficulties (BESD) or other Special Educational Needs (SEN) were also less likely to have gone to a higher-rated school.
Rates of imprisonment for children in need and children in care during secondary school are markedly higher than for other students. Of the 5,560 students in this study who were in the care system during their secondary school years, 93% did not go on to be imprisoned. However, 400 were imprisoned after the age of 16 years. This is a rate of 7%, far above the 1% of pupils who were not in care.
At lower-rated schools, this rate is even higher, with 9% of children in care receiving an immediate custodial sentence, compared with 6% of children in care who went to a good or outstanding school.
For children in need, the imprisonment rate is 4.6%, compared with 0.9% of children not in need. That is 46 children in every 1,000 children in need, but just 1 in 1,000 children not in need.
Pupils with Special Educational Needs (SEN) also have a higher proportion of immediate custodial sentences, with 2.5% of all SEN students being imprisoned compared with 0.7% of non-SEN students.
The research also confirmed that poorer students also have higher rates of imprisonment. Free school meals are offered to households receiving Universal Credit that have an income of less than £7,400 a year. We also looked at levels of low income in the local area.
Of the small minority of people who were imprisoned after key stage 4, more than half (57.8%) were eligible for free school meals in primary school. For context, students on free school meals are a fifth (22.9%) of all primary school pupils studied, so imprisonment for this group is disproportionately high.
Readers who would like to examine the research in full can do so here, where the data set can also be downloaded for free.